Exploresearch (ISSN: 3048-815X) ( Vol. 03| No. 1 | January - March, 2026 )

Probabilistic Evaluation of Lead-Free Perovskite Materials for Application Specific Photovoltaics

Author: Priti Goyal

The search for lead-free perovskite absorbers for solar cell technology has to strike a balance between performance, stability, and environmental safety, all of which have to be achieved in the presence of high material uncertainty. The traditional methods of screening materials, relying on deterministic criteria or average performance indicators, have been demonstrated to be inadequate in assessing the robustness of candidate materials in the presence of high variability. Here in this work, we propose a probabilistic material ranking scheme, which includes Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic ranking, and the Relative Scenario Value (RSV) metric. Three scenarios for solar cell technology, including rooftop solar, long-life solar cells, and environment-friendly solar cells, have been formulated by assigning different weights to the descriptors of efficiency, stability, and toxicity. The performance distribution, uncertainty limits, and ranking stability of candidate materials have been evaluated using a typical set of lead-free perovskite solar cells. The results show a strong distinction between "generalist" and "specialist" materials, in terms of their ranking robustness. The proposed probabilistic scheme for material ranking has been able to establish a strong link between uncertainty quantification and scenario-driven decision metrics for solar cell technology.

Goyal, P. (2026). Probabilistic Evaluation of Lead-Free Perovskite Materials for Application Specific Photovoltaics. Exploresearch, 03(01), 107–121. https://doi.org/10.62823/ExRe/2026/03/01.172

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DOI:

Article DOI: 10.62823/ExRe/2026/03/01.172

DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.62823/ExRe/2026/03/01.172

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