INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ACADEMIC EXCELLENCE AND RESEARCH (IJAER) e-ISSN: 3107-3913 ( Vol. 02 | No. 2 | April - June, 2026 )

Cross Market Volatility Spill overs: An Empirical Analysis of Transmission Effect between US (S&P 500) and Indian (NIFTY 50) Equity Markets

Author: Aswini R & Dr. Kabirdoss Devi

At Present the global economy is dynamic and unpredictable in nature and the financial panic spreads beyond the borders. So, in this study we are going to examine the volatility spill over of the equity market i.e., from the US market (S&P 500) to Indian market (NIFTY 50) there by understanding the cross-border financial transmission which is asymmetrical in nature and caused by unstable macroeconomic events. The aim of the study is to measure the spill over of volatility and to understand the effect of the 3 factors namely currency risk (USD/INR), global Fear (CBOE VIX) and 10year sovereign yield spread individually and combined. A sample of 348 weekly data were collected from secondary sources and analysed using R-programming and by using tools like GARCH (1,1) model, Vector Auto regression (VAR), Granger Causality, Threshold VAR, and Multivariate VARX model to Calculate volatility and to understand the relationship between the factors. The result Indicates that the spill over is asymmetrical when global markets are calm (VIX < = 20), only 9.23%. Indian market volatility is caused by us market but when panic break outs (VIX > 20), 38.6% Of Indian market Volatility is due to the US market. Other factors like currency risk and 10year yield Spread have an insignificant Impact individually, but when all 3 factors are combined, the market shock transmitted is significantly higher. Therefore, this study implies that during crises Indian equity market depends heavily on the Us Market.

Aswini, R., & Devi, K. (2026). Cross Market Volatility Spill overs: An Empirical Analysis of Transmission Effect between US (S&P 500) and Indian (NIFTY 50) Equity Markets. International Journal of Academic Excellence and Research, 02(02), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.62823/IJAER/02.02.198

  1. Baumöhl, E., & Výrost, T. (2010). Stock market integration: Granger causality testing with respect to non-synchronous trading effects. Journal of Economics, 58(5), 543-558.
  2. Camilleri, S. J., & Green, C. J. (2014). Stock market predictability: Non-synchronous trading or inefficient markets? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India. Studies in Economics and Finance, 31(4), 354-370.
  3. Engle, R. F., Ito, T., & Lin, W. L. (1990). Meteor showers or heat waves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Econometrical, 58(3), 525-542.
  4. Jangid, K. K. (2025). Financial market resilience and volatility spillovers: Lessons from India's post-COVID recovery. International Journal of Contemporary Research in Multidisciplinary, 4(5), 49-55.
  5. Kalra, A. S. (2025). Asymmetric volatility transmission and risk spillovers between the U.S. and the Indian stock market: Evidence from 2015-2025. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance.
  6. Kaur, H. (2004). Time varying volatility in the Indian stock market. Vikalpa, 29(4), 25-42.
  7. Kumar, K. K., & Mukhopadhyay, C. (2002). Equity market interlinkages: Transmission of volatility: A case of US & India. NSE Research Initiative.
  8. Linda, N., Kanojia, A., & Verma, N. (2025). Short-term effects of USA tariff announcements on the volatility of Indian stock market returns: Empirical evidence from market and sectoral indices. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 25(7), 1-15.
  9. Mishra, A. K., Swain, N., & Malhotra, D. K. (2007). Volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange markets: Indian evidence. International Journal of Business, 12(3), 343-359.
  10. Mishra, B. B., Sahay, N., & Sharma, P. (2025). Investigating the spillover effect of implied volatility on nifty return in different time periods with reference to index options: A multivariate GARCH approach. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 16(6).
  11. Rajuroy, A. (2024). A comparative study of NIFTY and S&P 500 index using GARCH models. ResearchGate.
  12. Saini, H., & Sharma, D. (2025). Volatility spillover among sectoral indices of the Indian and US stock markets. Zenodo.
  13. Sakthivel, P., Bodkhe, N., & Kamaiah, B. (2012). Correlation and volatility transmission across international stock markets: A bivariate GARCH analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(3), 253-264.

DOI:

Article DOI: 10.62823/IJAER/02.02.198

Download Full Paper: