This study examines the transformative shift in the global trading system between 2024 and early 2026, driven by the “security-first” United States trade policy. As a response to geopolitical risks, supply-chain risks, and technology risks, the U.S. launched a series of revisions in tariffs in key sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicles, steels, and minerals. Following the “Reciprocal Tariff” policy in 2025, the effective level of tariffs in the United States surged dramatically from 2.4 percent to an average of 18.3 percent, the highest level of protectionism in decades. The research aims to examine how the policy changes in the Unites States triggered a negative global supply shock, impacting trade costs and trade flows. Through the use of a comparative mixed-methods research design, the impact of tariffs is examined along with the real-time geopolitical events that occurred in 2026, including the Russia-Ukraine War, the maritime crisis in the Red Sea, and the growing geopolitical fragmentation in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The research reveals that the tariffs have resulted in significant economic costs to the US consumer, with household expenditures rising by $2,433 annually. At the same time, these tariffs have resulted in the structural transformation of global value chains. Multinational corporations are increasingly engaging in “friend-shoring” and “near-shoring,” where they are moving their production bases to politically friendly countries such as India, Mexico, and Vietnam. Through the research, it is established that the traditional period of hyper-globalization is gradually giving way to a fragmented and regionalized world. In the conclusion, the research recommends that multinational corporations should engage in “just-in-case” logistics strategies to mitigate the impact of the 0.5% drag on the world’s GDP caused by the ongoing uncertainty.
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