INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ACADEMIC EXCELLENCE AND RESEARCH (IJAER) e-ISSN: 3107-3913 ( Vol. 02 | No. 2 | April - June, 2026 )

Time-Series Forecasting of Gold and Silver Prices with Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing

Author: Shree Vatsva M & Dr. Kabirdoss Devi

The market for precious metals, specifically gold and silver, is quite crucial for the economy of India not only from an investment perspective but also as form of savings. Price of such metals fluctuate a lot because of various factors like changes in economic environment. Rate of inflation, interest and changes in currency value. The current research seeks to predict prices of gold and silver based on time series methodology, especially Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. While most conventional academic research depends heavily on sophisticated econometrics models, the present investigation applies a practical method for assessing the viability of using a more straightforward model to predict price behaviour. The analysis is carried out on secondary data consisting of monthly gold prices, silver prices and the value of the U.S. Dollar Index collected within a decade long span (2016-2025). Various statistical methods like Holt Winters Trend model and Holt winters seasonal are used and the forecast accuracy is determined by Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). From the results, it is clear that there is a trend and seasonality in the pattern of gold prices. This means that the appropriate method for forecasting will be the Holt–Winters multiplicative. On the other hand, the forecast shows that silver prices are dominated by trend but not by seasonality. This implies that the best method of forecasting will be the Holt Trend model since seasonality is very weak and irregular in this case. It is also evident from the results that silver is more accurate when forecasting. The US Dollar Index affects silver negatively. Conclusively, the results of the study indicate that the efficiency of the forecasting models used is greatly determined by the nature of the data used. Proper selection of the forecasting models through consideration of trends and seasonality will enhance prediction. The results are important in providing guidance to investors and traders in precious metals.

Vatsva, S., & Devi, K. (2026). Time-Series Forecasting of Gold and Silver Prices with Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing. International Journal of Academic Excellence and Research, 02(02), 25–31. https://doi.org/10.62823/IJAER/02.02.201

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DOI:

Article DOI: 10.62823/IJAER/02.02.201

DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.62823/IJAER/02.02.201

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