This study investigates the dynamic relationship between CO₂ emissions and climate change in Uzbekistan using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. Drawing on annual data from 1992 to 2024, the analysis incorporates structural break testing, impulse response functions (IRF), and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) to assess the extent to which emissions influence surface temperature change. Results confirm a statistically significant and persistent link, with emissions explaining long-run variance in temperature fluctuations. While the Kyoto Protocol had limited measurable impact, post-Paris Agreement dynamics show a stronger climate-emissions association. The CUSUM test supports parameter stability, implying no abrupt policy-driven structural breaks occurred. The findings reinforce the need for domestic implementation of international commitments. Policy recommendations include regional emissions trading, carbon taxation, and stronger monitoring systems. The study contributes evidence-based guidance for integrating climate science into Uzbekistan’s economic planning and environmental governance, aligning national action with global climate goals.